Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (53%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the lowest temperature in London be 8°C on November 3?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 47¢ · $68 held · ended Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$68.27
-$11.35
Research grade
NeutralNo at 47%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 53%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Noavg 77.7¢ | $48.16 | $29.11 | -$25.22 | 18% 4199-19783 (23982) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Yesavg 58.9¢ | $24 | $20.02 | +$10.87 | 16% 427-2300 (2727) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100 | Noavg 38¢ | $5.6 | $13.4 | +$4.4 | 27% 6708-18524 (25232) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Noavg 77.9¢ | $7.14 | $5.75 | -$1.4 | 48% 2103-2279 (4382) |
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$48.16
Value
$29.11
PnL
-$25.22
Record
18%
4199-19783 (23982)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$24
Value
$20.02
PnL
+$10.87
Record
16%
427-2300 (2727)
Invested
$5.6
Value
$13.4
PnL
+$4.4
Record
27%
6708-18524 (25232)
Invested
$7.14
Value
$5.75
PnL
-$1.4
Record
48%
2103-2279 (4382)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.