Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (75%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on October 30?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 26¢ · $388 held · ends Oct 30
⚠️
Avoid
No
4
No 100%
1 arb excluded
$388.23
$13.37
Research grade
AvoidNo at 26%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 IstarothARB<$100 | Yesavg 63.5¢ | $516.05 | $318.23 | -$39.28 | 23% 288-962 (1250) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 63.5¢ | $201.92 | $221.17 | +$10.11 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 45.3¢ | $144.18 | $97.06 | -$49.39 | |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Noavg 62.3¢ | $30.87 | $27.98 | -$2.89 | 50% 1704-1692 (3396) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Noavg 20¢ | $25.27 | $17.84 | +$5.47 | 53% 6405-5609 (12014) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Noavg 31¢ | $9.3 | $16.95 | +$7.65 | 61% 20834-13247 (34081) |
C2 0xc22b...deabCTR<$100 | Noavg 32¢ | $4.1 | $7.23 | +$3.14 | 0% 0-28 (28) |
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$516.05
Value
$318.23
PnL
-$39.28
Record
23%
288-962 (1250)
Both legs:
Invested
$30.87
Value
$27.98
PnL
-$2.89
Record
50%
1704-1692 (3396)
Invested
$25.27
Value
$17.84
PnL
+$5.47
Record
53%
6405-5609 (12014)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$9.3
Value
$16.95
PnL
+$7.65
Record
61%
20834-13247 (34081)
Invested
$4.1
Value
$7.23
PnL
+$3.14
Record
0%
0-28 (28)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
25.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.