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No
balthazarCTR<$100NoYesYesYes
Istaroth<$100Yes
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was No — but Yes won instead.
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on October 29?
Resolved Yes. 33% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
6
No 100%
Total Value
$0
Combined PnL
-$31.89
Smart Money Signal
No
2 of 6 top traders (33%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes100%
No0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No2 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares259
Combined PnL-$31.89
Yes4 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares0
Combined PnL+$0
No — 33%Yes — 67%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RO rocky42019CTR<$100 | Noavg 38.2¢ | $31.89 | — | -$31.89 | 42% 1708-2332 (4040) |
balthazarCTR<$100 | Noavg 61.6¢ | — | — | +$0 | 61% 20926-13319 (34245) |
HE hello.67<$100 | Yesavg 17¢ | — | — | +$0 | 50% 1744-1729 (3473) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Yesavg 24.8¢ | — | — | +$0 | 53% 6458-5657 (12115) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100 | Yesavg 80¢ | — | — | +$0 | 32% 4389-9438 (13827) |
Istaroth<$100 | Yesavg 57.2¢ | — | — | +$0 | 21% 295-1083 (1378) |
RO
rocky42019CTR<$100Invested
$31.89
Value
—
PnL
-$31.89
Record
42%
1708-2332 (4040)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
61%
20926-13319 (34245)
HE
hello.67<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
1744-1729 (3473)
CB
Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
6458-5657 (12115)
0X
0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
32%
4389-9438 (13827)
Istaroth<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
21%
295-1083 (1378)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x8eedfb7a...77d3ec
Slug
lowest-temperature-in-hong-kong-on-october-29-2026-25c