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Istaroth<$100No
balthazar<$100NoNoYesNoYes
Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was No — and it was correct. Winning outcome: No
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on October 29?
Resolved No. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was right.
RESOLVED
🏆
Won
Consensus Traders
6
No 100%
Total Value
$8.01
Combined PnL
$5.37
Smart Money Signal
No
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No4 traders
Total Value$8.01
Total Shares8
Combined PnL+$5.37
Yes2 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares0
Combined PnL+$0
No — 67%Yes — 33%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 42.9¢ | $2.64 | $8.01 | +$5.37 | 21% 295-1083 (1378) |
balthazar<$100 | Noavg 41¢ | — | — | +$0 | 61% 20926-13319 (34245) |
12 123987456<$100 | Noavg 43¢ | — | — | +$0 | 45% 1851-2281 (4132) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 51.8¢ | — | — | +$0 | 50% 1744-1729 (3473) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 41.2¢ | — | — | +$0 | 53% 6458-5657 (12115) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100 | Yesavg 7¢ | — | — | +$0 | 32% 4389-9438 (13827) |
Istaroth<$100Invested
$2.64
Value
$8.01
PnL
+$5.37
Record
21%
295-1083 (1378)
balthazar<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
61%
20926-13319 (34245)
12
123987456<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
45%
1851-2281 (4132)
HE
hello.67CTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
1744-1729 (3473)
CB
Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
6458-5657 (12115)
0X
0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
32%
4389-9438 (13827)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xc42bfcc6...7932c7
Slug
lowest-temperature-in-hong-kong-on-october-29-2026-24c