Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on November 9?

4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $0 held · ended Nov 9

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$0.11

Combined PnL

-$19.24

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$0.11

Total Shares227

Combined PnL-$19.24

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 8.2¢	$10.35	$0.06	-$10.29	47% 47657-54243 (101900)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 8.7¢	$56	$0.03	-$4.84	22% 3495-12142 (15637)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.91	$0.02	-$2.89	50% 9346-9412 (18758)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.22	$0.01	-$1.22	35% 1183-2186 (3369)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.35

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$10.29

Record

47%

47657-54243 (101900)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$56

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$4.84

Record

22%

3495-12142 (15637)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.91

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$2.89

Record

50%

9346-9412 (18758)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.22

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.22

Record

35%

1183-2186 (3369)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.