Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (97%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 19°C on November 9?

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 3.0¢ · $62 held · ended Nov 9

Yes97¢No3¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 71%

Total Value

$61.52

Combined PnL

$9.45

Research grade

AvoidNo at 3%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 97%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes97%

No3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$55.5

Total Shares58

Combined PnL+$39.77

No5 traders

Total Value$5.95

Total Shares109

Combined PnL-$30.32

Yes — 29%No — 71%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI Bilberry<$100	Yesavg 45.2¢	$38.23	$51.45	+$37.2	53% 5094-4462 (9556)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Yesavg 43¢	$2.15	$4.05	+$2.57	52% 9084-8296 (17380)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 39.5¢	$15.8	$2	-$13.8	50% 66281-66811 (133092)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Noavg 28.9¢	$11.04	$1.91	-$9.13	46% 6200-7413 (13613)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Noavg 58.8¢	$7.06	$1.08	-$5.98	23% 8575-28998 (37573)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Noavg 13.5¢	$1.91	$0.71	-$1.21	43% 5588-7271 (12859)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Noavg 9¢	$0.46	$0.26	-$0.2	69% 16770-7377 (24147)

Bilberry<$100

Yes

Invested

$38.23

Value

$51.45

PnL

+$37.2

Record

53%

5094-4462 (9556)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.15

Value

$4.05

PnL

+$2.57

Record

52%

9084-8296 (17380)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$15.8

Value

PnL

-$13.8

Record

50%

66281-66811 (133092)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Invested

$11.04

Value

$1.91

PnL

-$9.13

Record

46%

6200-7413 (13613)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Invested

$7.06

Value

$1.08

PnL

-$5.98

Record

23%

8575-28998 (37573)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Invested

$1.91

Value

$0.71

PnL

-$1.21

Record

43%

5588-7271 (12859)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

$0.46

Value

$0.26

PnL

-$0.2

Record

69%

16770-7377 (24147)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 3%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 97%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance4.2%

3.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2285.50

Max Loss

-$100.00

2385.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.