Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on November 3?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 55¢ · $58 held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 67%
$58.39
-$5.91
Research grade
NeutralNo at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 53.5¢ | $52.92 | $44.54 | -$5.91 | 50% 2032-1997 (4029) |
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100 | Noavg 55¢ | $11 | $11 | -$0 | 56% 3732-2932 (6664) |
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100 | Noavg 55¢ | $2.85 | $2.85 | +$0 | 35% 554-1008 (1562) |
Invested
$52.92
Value
$44.54
PnL
-$5.91
Record
50%
2032-1997 (4029)
Invested
$11
Value
$11
PnL
-$0
Record
56%
3732-2932 (6664)
Invested
$2.85
Value
$2.85
PnL
+$0
Record
35%
554-1008 (1562)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.