Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on November 15?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 100¢ · $105 held · ends Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$105.27

Combined PnL

$3.24

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$105.14

Total Shares105

Combined PnL+$9.98

Yes3 traders

Total Value$0.12

Total Shares81

Combined PnL-$6.74

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 80¢	$32	$39.94	+$7.94	36% 286-506 (792)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 97.5¢	$19.49	$19.96	+$0.47	53% 7340-6426 (13766)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$18.25	$18.24	-$0.01	59% 827-567 (1394)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$10.2	$10.19	-$0.01	47% 1197-1366 (2563)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 84¢	$8.4	$9.99	+$1.59	34% 329-653 (982)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$6.82	$6.82	-$0	51% 818-797 (1615)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$5.45	$0.09	-$5.36	43% 5159-6926 (12085)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 16¢	$28.36	$0.02	-$0.48	14% 97-580 (677)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.91	$0.02	-$0.9	41% 2656-3796 (6452)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$32

Value

$39.94

PnL

+$7.94

Record

36%

286-506 (792)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$19.49

Value

$19.96

PnL

+$0.47

Record

53%

7340-6426 (13766)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$18.25

Value

$18.24

PnL

-$0.01

Record

59%

827-567 (1394)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$10.2

Value

$10.19

PnL

-$0.01

Record

47%

1197-1366 (2563)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$8.4

Value

$9.99

PnL

+$1.59

Record

34%

329-653 (982)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$6.82

Value

$6.82

PnL

-$0

Record

51%

818-797 (1615)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.45

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$5.36

Record

43%

5159-6926 (12085)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.36

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.48

Record

14%

97-580 (677)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.91

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.9

Record

41%

2656-3796 (6452)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.