Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (94%). 10 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on November 14?

10 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (91%) · No at 5.5¢ · $8 held · ended Nov 14

Yes94¢No6¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 91%

Total Value

$8.25

Combined PnL

$284.84

Research grade

AvoidNo at 6%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 11 top traders (91%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 94%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes94%

No6%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$4.35

Total Shares5

Combined PnL+$17.2

No10 traders

Total Value$3.9

Total Shares126

Combined PnL+$267.64

Yes — 9%No — 91%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LU luciebot<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.87	$4.35	+$17.2	26% 692-1921 (2613)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 5.3¢	$13.19	$0.62	+$147.22	29% 3185-7958 (11143)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Noavg 4.8¢	$0.87	$0.56	-$0.31	57% 703-522 (1225)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Noavg 4.8¢	$0.87	$0.56	-$0.31	46% 1100-1303 (2403)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Noavg 4.8¢	$0.87	$0.56	-$0.31	49% 788-829 (1617)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Noavg 4.8¢	$0.87	$0.56	-$0.31	50% 722-711 (1433)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Noavg 84.7¢	$8.47	$0.31	-$8.16	39% 228-359 (587)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Noavg 5.2¢	$0.47	$0.28	-$0.19	58% 725-520 (1245)
BI BilberryCTR<$100	Noavg 77.3¢	$3.99	$0.16	-$3.83	40% 42-63 (105)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Noavg 5.2¢	$0.26	$0.16	-$0.11	49% 757-801 (1558)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 4.4¢	$9.08	$0.13	+$133.94	43% 5074-6626 (11700)

luciebot<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.87

Value

$4.35

PnL

+$17.2

Record

26%

692-1921 (2613)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$13.19

Value

$0.62

PnL

+$147.22

Record

29%

3185-7958 (11143)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Invested

$0.87

Value

$0.56

PnL

-$0.31

Record

57%

703-522 (1225)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

$0.87

Value

$0.56

PnL

-$0.31

Record

46%

1100-1303 (2403)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Invested

$0.87

Value

$0.56

PnL

-$0.31

Record

49%

788-829 (1617)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Invested

$0.87

Value

$0.56

PnL

-$0.31

Record

50%

722-711 (1433)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Invested

$8.47

Value

$0.31

PnL

-$8.16

Record

39%

228-359 (587)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Invested

$0.47

Value

$0.28

PnL

-$0.19

Record

58%

725-520 (1245)

BilberryCTR<$100

Invested

$3.99

Value

$0.16

PnL

-$3.83

Record

40%

42-63 (105)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

$0.26

Value

$0.16

PnL

-$0.11

Record

49%

757-801 (1558)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$9.08

Value

$0.13

PnL

+$133.94

Record

43%

5074-6626 (11700)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 6%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 11 top traders (91%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 94%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance6.9%

5.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1358.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

1458.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.