Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 7 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C or higher on November 12?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $0 held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
7
Yes 100%
$0.28
-$50.08
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 70%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $24.36 | $0.13 | -$24.23 | 58% 446-318 (764) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $10.72 | $0.06 | -$10.66 | 30% 2929-6852 (9781) |
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $8.18 | $0.05 | -$8.14 | 25% 113-336 (449) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $3.64 | $0.02 | -$3.62 | 47% 4794-5409 (10203) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $1.82 | $0.01 | -$1.81 | 12% 34-240 (274) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $1.18 | $0.01 | -$1.18 | 36% 506-908 (1414) |
AN anothercoinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $0.45 | $0 | -$0.45 | 39% 1379-2181 (3560) |
Invested
$24.36
Value
$0.13
PnL
-$24.23
Record
58%
446-318 (764)
Invested
$10.72
Value
$0.06
PnL
-$10.66
Record
30%
2929-6852 (9781)
Invested
$8.18
Value
$0.05
PnL
-$8.14
Record
25%
113-336 (449)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$3.64
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$3.62
Record
47%
4794-5409 (10203)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$1.82
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$1.81
Record
12%
34-240 (274)
Invested
$1.18
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$1.18
Record
36%
506-908 (1414)
Invested
$0.45
Value
$0
PnL
-$0.45
Record
39%
1379-2181 (3560)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.