Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on November 12?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 56¢ · $101 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$100.69
$10.16
Research grade
NeutralNo at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+3 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 49%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 49% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 45¢ | $18 | $24 | +$6 | 51% 4655-4529 (9184) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 50¢ | $17.88 | $21.44 | +$3.56 | 30% 2714-6211 (8925) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 45¢ | $13.5 | $18 | +$4.5 | 17% 66-330 (396) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $20.7 | $18 | -$2.7 | 27% 104-283 (387) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 60¢ | $12 | $11 | -$1 | 53% 5671-5102 (10773) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 33.8¢ | $8.45 | $8.25 | -$0.2 | 12% 21-155 (176) |
balthazar<$100Invested
$18
Value
$24
PnL
+$6
Record
51%
4655-4529 (9184)
Invested
$17.88
Value
$21.44
PnL
+$3.56
Record
30%
2714-6211 (8925)
Invested
$13.5
Value
$18
PnL
+$4.5
Record
17%
66-330 (396)
Invested
$20.7
Value
$18
PnL
-$2.7
Record
27%
104-283 (387)
Invested
$12
Value
$11
PnL
-$1
Record
53%
5671-5102 (10773)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$8.45
Value
$8.25
PnL
-$0.2
Record
12%
21-155 (176)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.