Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C on November 12?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 52¢ · $94 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$94.48
-$18.04
54.1¢ → 51.5¢
-5% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 52%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 48%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 48% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 53.8¢ | $32.28 | $26.88 | -$5.4 | 27% 104-283 (387) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 53.5¢ | $21.41 | $17.92 | -$3.49 | 51% 4655-4529 (9184) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 49.6¢ | $18.8 | $16.99 | -$1.81 | 30% 2714-6211 (8925) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 38.9¢ | $11.67 | $13.44 | +$1.77 | 24% 77-243 (320) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 44.8¢ | $8.96 | $10.29 | +$1.33 | 53% 5671-5102 (10773) |
 LornaPredicts<$100 | Noavg 97¢ | $19.4 | $8.96 | -$10.44 | 12% 21-155 (176) |
Invested
$32.28
Value
$26.88
PnL
-$5.4
Record
27%
104-283 (387)
balthazar<$100Invested
$21.41
Value
$17.92
PnL
-$3.49
Record
51%
4655-4529 (9184)
Invested
$18.8
Value
$16.99
PnL
-$1.81
Record
30%
2714-6211 (8925)
Invested
$11.67
Value
$13.44
PnL
+$1.77
Record
24%
77-243 (320)
Invested
$8.96
Value
$10.29
PnL
+$1.33
Record
53%
5671-5102 (10773)
LornaPredicts<$100Invested
$19.4
Value
$8.96
PnL
-$10.44
Record
12%
21-155 (176)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.