Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 20°C on November 12?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 95¢ · $146 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 100%
$145.74
-$1.32
96.7¢ → 95.2¢
-2% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 45%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 45% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.2¢ | $37.62 | $36.41 | -$1.21 | 31% 2735-6214 (8949) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 91.2¢ | $27.37 | $28.8 | +$1.43 | 27% 936-2514 (3450) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.97 | $28.8 | -$1.17 | 29% 882-2138 (3020) |
 LornaPredicts<$100 | Noavg 97¢ | $19.4 | $19.2 | -$0.2 | 12% 22-156 (178) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 95.5¢ | $19.1 | $19.04 | -$0.06 | 53% 5689-5114 (10803) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $9.76 | $9.68 | -$0.08 | 45% 391-471 (862) |
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $3.84 | $3.81 | -$0.03 | 44% 401-519 (920) |
Invested
$37.62
Value
$36.41
PnL
-$1.21
Record
31%
2735-6214 (8949)
Invested
$27.37
Value
$28.8
PnL
+$1.43
Record
27%
936-2514 (3450)
Invested
$29.97
Value
$28.8
PnL
-$1.17
Record
29%
882-2138 (3020)
LornaPredicts<$100Invested
$19.4
Value
$19.2
PnL
-$0.2
Record
12%
22-156 (178)
Invested
$19.1
Value
$19.04
PnL
-$0.06
Record
53%
5689-5114 (10803)
Invested
$9.76
Value
$9.68
PnL
-$0.08
Record
45%
391-471 (862)
Invested
$3.84
Value
$3.81
PnL
-$0.03
Record
44%
401-519 (920)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.