Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 19°C on November 12?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 95¢ · $150 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$149.82
$1.75
99.5¢ → 95.3¢
-4% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+7 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 66%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $59.62 | $59.4 | -$0.22 | 40% 1456-2158 (3614) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $37.87 | $37.55 | -$0.31 | 30% 2714-6211 (8925) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $29.94 | $29.7 | -$0.24 | 27% 936-2514 (3450) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $19.8 | $18.95 | -$0.85 | 53% 5671-5102 (10773) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $0.18 | $2.11 | +$1.93 | 12% 21-155 (176) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.7¢ | $0.66 | $2.1 | +$1.44 | 51% 40-38 (78) |
Invested
$59.62
Value
$59.4
PnL
-$0.22
Record
40%
1456-2158 (3614)
Invested
$37.87
Value
$37.55
PnL
-$0.31
Record
30%
2714-6211 (8925)
Invested
$29.94
Value
$29.7
PnL
-$0.24
Record
27%
936-2514 (3450)
Invested
$19.8
Value
$18.95
PnL
-$0.85
Record
53%
5671-5102 (10773)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$0.18
Value
$2.11
PnL
+$1.93
Record
12%
21-155 (176)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$0.66
Value
$2.1
PnL
+$1.44
Record
51%
40-38 (78)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.