Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (60%). 6 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 18°C on November 11?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 41¢ · $86 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$86.14
-$3.44
Research grade
NeutralNo at 41%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 60%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 48%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 48% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Noavg 34.6¢ | $21.3 | $23.99 | +$2.69 | 50% 4494-4439 (8933) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Noavg 35¢ | $21.04 | $18.65 | -$2.39 | 28% 2449-6153 (8602) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Noavg 35.5¢ | $20.97 | $18.3 | -$2.67 | 35% 2910-5328 (8238) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Noavg 35.8¢ | $12.78 | $13.92 | +$1.14 | 52% 5320-4824 (10144) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Noavg 39.3¢ | $11.84 | $9.33 | -$2.51 | — 8-9 (17) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Noavg 33¢ | $1.65 | $1.95 | +$0.3 | 79% 177-47 (224) |
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$21.3
Value
$23.99
PnL
+$2.69
Record
50%
4494-4439 (8933)
Invested
$21.04
Value
$18.65
PnL
-$2.39
Record
28%
2449-6153 (8602)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$20.97
Value
$18.3
PnL
-$2.67
Record
35%
2910-5328 (8238)
Invested
$12.78
Value
$13.92
PnL
+$1.14
Record
52%
5320-4824 (10144)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$11.84
Value
$9.33
PnL
-$2.51
Record
—
8-9 (17)
Invested
$1.65
Value
$1.95
PnL
+$0.3
Record
79%
177-47 (224)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
40.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.