Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 17°C on November 11?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 63¢ · $164 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$164.42
-$3.63
68.5¢ → 63¢
-8% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 63%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 57%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 69.4¢ | $54.2 | $52.34 | -$1.86 | 35% 2910-5328 (8238) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 67.3¢ | $41.46 | $41.26 | -$0.2 | 28% 2449-6153 (8602) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 68.2¢ | $40.95 | $40.2 | -$0.75 | 50% 4494-4439 (8933) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 68.3¢ | $24.39 | $23.92 | -$0.47 | 52% 5320-4824 (10144) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 70.5¢ | $7.05 | $6.7 | -$0.35 | 79% 177-47 (224) |
Lucerys<$100Invested
$54.2
Value
$52.34
PnL
-$1.86
Record
35%
2910-5328 (8238)
Invested
$41.46
Value
$41.26
PnL
-$0.2
Record
28%
2449-6153 (8602)
balthazar<$100Invested
$40.95
Value
$40.2
PnL
-$0.75
Record
50%
4494-4439 (8933)
Invested
$24.39
Value
$23.92
PnL
-$0.47
Record
52%
5320-4824 (10144)
Invested
$7.05
Value
$6.7
PnL
-$0.35
Record
79%
177-47 (224)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
63.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.