Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 16°C on November 11?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 98¢ · $210 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$210.04
$0.57
98.8¢ → 98.2¢
-1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 60%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $77.25 | $77.42 | +$0.16 | 35% 2910-5328 (8238) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 98.8¢ | $47.58 | $47.73 | +$0.15 | 28% 2449-6153 (8602) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 98.7¢ | $44.36 | $44.56 | +$0.19 | 50% 4494-4439 (8933) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $35.32 | $35.38 | +$0.06 | 52% 5320-4824 (10144) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.1¢ | $4.96 | $4.96 | +$0 | 79% 177-47 (224) |
Lucerys<$100Invested
$77.25
Value
$77.42
PnL
+$0.16
Record
35%
2910-5328 (8238)
Invested
$47.58
Value
$47.73
PnL
+$0.15
Record
28%
2449-6153 (8602)
balthazar<$100Invested
$44.36
Value
$44.56
PnL
+$0.19
Record
50%
4494-4439 (8933)
Invested
$35.32
Value
$35.38
PnL
+$0.06
Record
52%
5320-4824 (10144)
Invested
$4.96
Value
$4.96
PnL
+$0
Record
79%
177-47 (224)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.