Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 12°C or below on November 10?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $40 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
$40.05
$0.01
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $13.36 | $13.36 | +$0 | 35% 2882-5322 (8204) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $11.61 | $11.62 | +$0.01 | 26% 888-2504 (3392) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $9.99 | $9.99 | +$0 | 28% 2422-6146 (8568) |
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $5.08 | $5.08 | +$0 | 30% 175-412 (587) |
Lucerys<$100Invested
$13.36
Value
$13.36
PnL
+$0
Record
35%
2882-5322 (8204)
Invested
$11.61
Value
$11.62
PnL
+$0.01
Record
26%
888-2504 (3392)
Invested
$9.99
Value
$9.99
PnL
+$0
Record
28%
2422-6146 (8568)
Invested
$5.08
Value
$5.08
PnL
+$0
Record
30%
175-412 (587)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.