Games Total: O/U 2.5

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (63%) · Over at 100¢ · $6K held · ends Oct 31

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 63%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.7K

Combined PnL

$552.35

Smart Money Entry

52.8¢ → 100¢

+89% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares3,401

Combined PnL-$6.68

Over5 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares4,486

Combined PnL+$559.03

Under — 38%Over — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
StudyPredictionCTR	Underavg 59.6¢	$1.9K	$1.7K	-$4.41	53% 4578-3991 (8569)
YI yishiwucheng	Overavg 58.1¢	$1.3K	$1.7K	+$410.33	51% 1807-1737 (3544)
GA GAMBLINGISCANCER69	Overavg 39¢	$512.38	$643.76	+$131.38	70% 37-16 (53)
AM ameisgoat11ARB<$100	Overavg 67.5¢	$550.85	$582.93	+$32.08	47% 2277-2560 (4837)
└ Over leg	Overavg 67.5¢	$420.98	$364.95	-$56.03
└ Under leg	Underavg 24.7¢	$129.87	$217.98	+$88.11
TA takeormake	Overavg 80.8¢	$554.98	$525.34	-$29.64	53% 4002-3482 (7484)
FR fraagen	Overavg 41¢	$328	$376	+$48	46% 54-63 (117)
AM am100CTR	Underavg 61¢	$139.15	$125.46	-$1.14	55% 1155-932 (2087)
poshposhCTR<$100	Underavg 53¢	$29.92	$28.79	-$1.13	59% 9968-6940 (16908)
SB sbimbg<$100	Overavg 67¢	$3.86	$2.82	-$1.04	70% 3143-1356 (4499)

StudyPredictionCTR

Under

Invested

$1,858.64

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$4.41

Record

53%

4578-3991 (8569)

yishiwucheng

Over

Invested

$1,299.61

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$410.33

Record

51%

1807-1737 (3544)

GAMBLINGISCANCER69

Over

Invested

$512.38

Value

$643.76

PnL

+$131.38

Record

70%

37-16 (53)

ameisgoat11ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$550.85

Value

$582.93

PnL

+$32.08

Record

47%

2277-2560 (4837)

Both legs:

Over$420.9867.5¢-$56.03

Under$129.8724.7¢+$88.11

takeormake

Over

Invested

$554.98

Value

$525.34

PnL

-$29.64

Record

53%

4002-3482 (7484)

fraagen

Over

Invested

$328

Value

$376

PnL

+$48

Record

46%

54-63 (117)

am100CTR

Under

Invested

$139.15

Value

$125.46

PnL

-$1.14

Record

55%

1155-932 (2087)

poshposhCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$29.92

Value

$28.79

PnL

-$1.13

Record

59%

9968-6940 (16908)

sbimbg<$100

Over

Invested

$3.86

Value

$2.82

PnL

-$1.04

Record

70%

3143-1356 (4499)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.