Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 100¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Under
4
Under 75%
$3.9K
$483.4
87.2¢ → 99.9¢
+15% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZX zxc368 | Underavg 99.9¢ | $2.2K | $2.2K | -$0 | 98% 12962-205 (13167) |
 iceblue- | Underavg 61.1¢ | $634.86 | $1.0K | +$402.39 | 43% 809-1077 (1886) |
 StudyPredictionCTR | Overavg 33¢ | $456.02 | $511.3 | +$55.28 | 53% 4578-3991 (8569) |
 bernardi22<$100 | Underavg 66¢ | $50 | $75.69 | +$25.74 | 56% 1271-990 (2261) |
Invested
$2,240.34
Value
$2.2K
PnL
-$0
Record
98%
12962-205 (13167)
iceblue-Invested
$634.86
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$402.39
Record
43%
809-1077 (1886)
StudyPredictionCTRInvested
$456.02
Value
$511.3
PnL
+$55.28
Record
53%
4578-3991 (8569)
bernardi22<$100Invested
$50
Value
$75.69
PnL
+$25.74
Record
56%
1271-990 (2261)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.