Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (56%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 2?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 44¢ · $5K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Under
4
Under 75%
$4.7K
$190.28
69.7¢ → 43.9¢
-37% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 44%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Over 56%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 StudyPredictionCTR | Underavg 43.9¢ | $1.0K | $2.3K | +$1.3K | 53% 4578-3991 (8569) |
DE delacsynzy1 | Overavg 56.1¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$0 | 51% 456-431 (887) |
ZX zxc368CTR | Underavg 99.9¢ | $2.0K | $883.65 | $-1.1K | 98% 12962-205 (13167) |
 iceblue-CTR<$100 | Underavg 55¢ | $16.23 | $29.5 | +$13.27 | 43% 809-1077 (1886) |
StudyPredictionCTRInvested
$1,021.81
Value
$2.3K
PnL
+$1.3K
Record
53%
4578-3991 (8569)
Invested
$1,500
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
456-431 (887)
Invested
$2,012.29
Value
$883.65
PnL
$-1.1K
Record
98%
12962-205 (13167)
iceblue-CTR<$100Invested
$16.23
Value
$29.5
PnL
+$13.27
Record
43%
809-1077 (1886)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
43.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.