Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 100¢ · $8K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 67%
$8.4K
$52.43
93.1¢ → 100¢
+7% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZX zxc368 | Underavg 99.8¢ | $6.9K | $6.9K | +$12.48 | 98% 12945-204 (13149) |
 iceblue- | Underavg 60.7¢ | $824.1 | $828.79 | +$4.7 | 43% 808-1077 (1885) |
 StudyPredictionCTR | Overavg 37¢ | $533.53 | $562.37 | +$28.84 | 53% 4578-3991 (8569) |
CC ccllarCTR<$100 | Overavg 42¢ | $59.01 | $54.79 | -$4.21 | 46% 416-486 (902) |
0X 0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000<$100 | Underavg 12.4¢ | $2.68 | $13.18 | +$10.5 | 42% 2235-3034 (5269) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Underavg 59¢ | $3.81 | $3.93 | +$0.13 | 57% 13657-10450 (24107) |
Invested
$6,899.03
Value
$6.9K
PnL
+$12.48
Record
98%
12945-204 (13149)
iceblue-Invested
$824.1
Value
$828.79
PnL
+$4.7
Record
43%
808-1077 (1885)
StudyPredictionCTRInvested
$533.53
Value
$562.37
PnL
+$28.84
Record
53%
4578-3991 (8569)
Invested
$59.01
Value
$54.79
PnL
-$4.21
Record
46%
416-486 (902)
Invested
$2.68
Value
$13.18
PnL
+$10.5
Record
42%
2235-3034 (5269)
Invested
$3.81
Value
$3.93
PnL
+$0.13
Record
57%
13657-10450 (24107)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.