Games Total: O/U 4.5

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (30%) · Under at 63¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 4

Over38¢Under62¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 30%

Total Value

$5.7K

Combined PnL

$3.91

Smart Money Entry

63.1¢ → 62.5¢

-1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 63%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 10 top traders (30%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over38%

Under63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares7,437

Combined PnL+$31.25

Over7 traders

Total Value$981.7

Total Shares2,598

Combined PnL-$27.34

Under — 30%Over — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-22 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 75% · 4

Diverging

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 83% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Over 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CO ColdBlooded	Underavg 63¢	$4.3K	$4.3K	+$33.85	72% 149-57 (206)
EA easymoneysniperzzCTR	Overavg 38.2¢	$572.48	$555	-$17.48	43% 420-551 (971)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Underavg 64¢	$256	$258	+$2	51% 1717-1639 (3356)
LZ lzh1CTR	Overavg 38.2¢	$190.83	$187.5	-$3.33	43% 490-651 (1141)
AM am100	Underavg 65.7¢	$175.68	$168.41	-$4.6	55% 1175-950 (2125)
ZZ Zzzz87CTR	Overavg 38.2¢	$151.47	$146.89	-$4.58	47% 3204-3579 (6783)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Overavg 38.8¢	$43.88	$42.57	-$1	45% 13648-16581 (30229)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Overavg 36¢	$23.4	$24.05	+$0	46% 8245-9621 (17866)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Overavg 37.2¢	$22.6	$21.6	-$1	50% 20187-20523 (40710)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 35¢	$4.04	$4.09	+$0.06	52% 8455-7711 (16166)

ColdBlooded

Under

Invested

$4,264.91

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$33.85

Record

72%

149-57 (206)

easymoneysniperzzCTR

Over

Invested

$572.48

Value

$555

PnL

-$17.48

Record

43%

420-551 (971)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Under

Invested

$256

Value

$258

PnL

+$2

Record

51%

1717-1639 (3356)

lzh1CTR

Over

Invested

$190.83

Value

$187.5

PnL

-$3.33

Record

43%

490-651 (1141)

am100

Under

Invested

$175.68

Value

$168.41

PnL

-$4.6

Record

55%

1175-950 (2125)

Zzzz87CTR

Over

Invested

$151.47

Value

$146.89

PnL

-$4.58

Record

47%

3204-3579 (6783)

suntoriCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$43.88

Value

$42.57

PnL

-$1

Record

45%

13648-16581 (30229)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$23.4

Value

$24.05

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

8245-9621 (17866)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$22.6

Value

$21.6

PnL

-$1

Record

50%

20187-20523 (40710)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.04

Value

$4.09

PnL

+$0.06

Record

52%

8455-7711 (16166)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 63%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 10 top traders (30%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-22 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 75% · 4

Diverging

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 83% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Over 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.7%

62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$54.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

154.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.