Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Top Esports, while the market favors Invictus Gaming (55%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
LoL: Top Esports vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) - Worlds Playoffs
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Top Esports (83%) · Top Esports at 46¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Top Esports
6
Top Esports 83%
$2.9K
$48.84
44.2¢ → 45.5¢
+3% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralTop Esports at 46%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Invictus Gaming 55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VI vibing123CTR | Top Esportsavg 44¢ | $991.63 | $1.0K | +$11.27 | 52% 1575-1458 (3033) |
GA GAMBLINGISCANCER69CTR | Top Esportsavg 45¢ | $693.32 | $685.83 | -$7.49 | 67% 41-20 (61) |
TA TAIWANNUMBERONECTR | Top Esportsavg 43¢ | $1.5K | $599.55 | +$36.67 | 54% 1249-1044 (2293) |
 KateBollingerCTR | Top Esportsavg 45¢ | $418.59 | $423.24 | +$4.65 | 68% 1753-815 (2568) |
GG GGLPL | Invictus Gamingavg 54.5¢ | $206.51 | $210.19 | +$3.68 | 50% 697-693 (1390) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Top Esportsavg 45¢ | $5.92 | $5.98 | +$0.07 | 56% 14257-11059 (25316) |
Invested
$991.63
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$11.27
Record
52%
1575-1458 (3033)
Invested
$693.32
Value
$685.83
PnL
-$7.49
Record
67%
41-20 (61)
Invested
$1,501.38
Value
$599.55
PnL
+$36.67
Record
54%
1249-1044 (2293)
KateBollingerCTRInvested
$418.59
Value
$423.24
PnL
+$4.65
Record
68%
1753-815 (2568)
Invested
$206.51
Value
$210.19
PnL
+$3.68
Record
50%
697-693 (1390)
Invested
$5.92
Value
$5.98
PnL
+$0.07
Record
56%
14257-11059 (25316)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.