Games Total: O/U 2.5
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (83%) · Under at 60¢ · $6K held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 83%
$5.9K
-$206.98
58.8¢ → 59.5¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 60%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x6918EA182D963b1Fb7888860b8a8b8bCfbA5782b-1771878010027 | Underavg 59¢ | $4.9K | $4.7K | -$204.86 | 57% 1085-809 (1894) |
FO Forecastication2CTR | Overavg 41¢ | $419.43 | $414.32 | -$5.11 | 50% 6899-6893 (13792) |
PL pltrkr111 | Underavg 59¢ | $392.94 | $396.27 | +$3.33 | 54% 719-608 (1327) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989 | Underavg 56¢ | $280 | $282.5 | +$2.5 | 53% 5542-4910 (10452) |
AM am100 | Underavg 58¢ | $107.89 | $105.1 | -$2.79 | 55% 1150-930 (2080) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Underavg 57¢ | $5.7 | $5.65 | -$0.05 | 47% 2160-2464 (4624) |
Invested
$4,855.94
Value
$4.7K
PnL
-$204.86
Record
57%
1085-809 (1894)
Invested
$419.43
Value
$414.32
PnL
-$5.11
Record
50%
6899-6893 (13792)
Invested
$392.94
Value
$396.27
PnL
+$3.33
Record
54%
719-608 (1327)
Invested
$280
Value
$282.5
PnL
+$2.5
Record
53%
5542-4910 (10452)
Invested
$107.89
Value
$105.1
PnL
-$2.79
Record
55%
1150-930 (2080)
Invested
$5.7
Value
$5.65
PnL
-$0.05
Record
47%
2160-2464 (4624)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.