Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (83%) · Under at 100¢ · $15K held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 83%
$14.5K
$2.7K
71.4¢ → 100¢
+40% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 81%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZX zxc368 | Underavg 99.9¢ | $5.3K | $5.3K | +$2.65 | 98% 12875-200 (13075) |
 StudyPrediction | Underavg 43.5¢ | $1.7K | $3.8K | +$2.2K | 53% 4568-3982 (8550) |
DE delacsynzy1CTR | Overavg 55.4¢ | $3.2K | $3.3K | +$98.33 | 52% 453-425 (878) |
SP spartachio | Underavg 44.6¢ | $953.13 | $953.93 | +$0.8 | 48% 695-747 (1442) |
CC ccllar | Underavg 45.5¢ | $364 | $799.2 | +$435.2 | 46% 411-482 (893) |
NE newwman | Underavg 80¢ | $827 | $352.3 | +$34.78 | 53% 895-799 (1694) |
Invested
$5,288.12
Value
$5.3K
PnL
+$2.65
Record
98%
12875-200 (13075)
StudyPredictionInvested
$1,739.94
Value
$3.8K
PnL
+$2.2K
Record
53%
4568-3982 (8550)
Invested
$3,200
Value
$3.3K
PnL
+$98.33
Record
52%
453-425 (878)
Invested
$953.13
Value
$953.93
PnL
+$0.8
Record
48%
695-747 (1442)
Invested
$364
Value
$799.2
PnL
+$435.2
Record
46%
411-482 (893)
Invested
$827
Value
$352.3
PnL
+$34.78
Record
53%
895-799 (1694)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.