Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (53%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 48¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Under
4
Under 100%
$2.8K
-$43.77
46.9¢ → 47.5¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 48%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Over 53%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x6918EA182D963b1Fb7888860b8a8b8bCfbA5782b-1771878010027CTR | Underavg 46.3¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | -$20.15 | 57% 1085-809 (1894) |
AM am100CTR | Underavg 47¢ | $913.79 | $923.12 | +$9.33 | 55% 1150-930 (2080) |
 JustADonkCTR | Underavg 48.5¢ | $547.49 | $513.13 | -$34.36 | 55% 883-722 (1605) |
 StudyPredictionCTR | Underavg 45¢ | $127.17 | $128.58 | +$1.41 | 53% 4563-3973 (8536) |
Invested
$1,225.45
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$20.15
Record
57%
1085-809 (1894)
Invested
$913.79
Value
$923.12
PnL
+$9.33
Record
55%
1150-930 (2080)
JustADonkCTRInvested
$547.49
Value
$513.13
PnL
-$34.36
Record
55%
883-722 (1605)
StudyPredictionCTRInvested
$127.17
Value
$128.58
PnL
+$1.41
Record
53%
4563-3973 (8536)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.