LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Gromp Esports - Game 3 Winner
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Saigon Warriors (50%) · Saigon Warriors at 90¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
Saigon Warriors
6
Saigon Warriors 50%
$11.4K
-$100.52
90.6¢ → 90¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralSaigon Warriors at 90%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WA wangyou1288 | Saigon Warriorsavg 90.7¢ | $11.2K | $11.1K | -$87.51 | — |
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2 | Saigon Warriorsavg 91¢ | $140.51 | $132.61 | -$7.91 | 56% 3774-2943 (6717) |
CO ColdBlooded | Saigon Warriorsavg 83¢ | $122.11 | $122.84 | +$0.74 | — 4-1 (5) |
BR brobrobrobrobroCTR<$100 | Gromp Esportsavg 10.7¢ | $52.96 | $47.02 | -$5.94 | 4% 1-26 (27) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Gromp Esportsavg 16¢ | $1.6 | $1.65 | +$0.05 | 22% 134-483 (617) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Gromp Esportsavg 14¢ | $0.29 | $0.35 | +$0.05 | 52% 244-227 (471) |
Invested
$11,172.11
Value
$11.1K
PnL
-$87.51
Record
—
Invested
$140.51
Value
$132.61
PnL
-$7.91
Record
56%
3774-2943 (6717)
Invested
$122.11
Value
$122.84
PnL
+$0.74
Record
—
4-1 (5)
Invested
$52.96
Value
$47.02
PnL
-$5.94
Record
4%
1-26 (27)
Invested
$1.6
Value
$1.65
PnL
+$0.05
Record
22%
134-483 (617)
Invested
$0.29
Value
$0.35
PnL
+$0.05
Record
52%
244-227 (471)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.