LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Gromp Esports (BO5) - LCP Promotion Playoffs
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Saigon Warriors (40%) · Saigon Warriors at 95¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
Saigon Warriors
5
Saigon Warriors 40%
$5.0K
$37.66
92.3¢ → 94.5¢
+2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralSaigon Warriors at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Saigon Warriors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CO ColdBlooded | Saigon Warriorsavg 92.3¢ | $4.7K | $4.8K | +$112.17 | — 4-1 (5) |
GR gregbeastCTR | Gromp Esportsavg 8¢ | $239.94 | $150 | -$74.94 | 0% 0-99 (99) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Saigon Warriorsavg 93.8¢ | $18.75 | $18.9 | +$0.15 | 20% 113-461 (574) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Gromp Esportsavg 5.5¢ | $19.66 | $17.21 | +$0.19 | 48% 603-645 (1248) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Gromp Esportsavg 5¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0.1 | 47% 329-371 (700) |
Invested
$4,665.2
Value
$4.8K
PnL
+$112.17
Record
—
4-1 (5)
Invested
$239.94
Value
$150
PnL
-$74.94
Record
0%
0-99 (99)
Invested
$18.75
Value
$18.9
PnL
+$0.15
Record
20%
113-461 (574)
Invested
$19.66
Value
$17.21
PnL
+$0.19
Record
48%
603-645 (1248)
Invested
$1
Value
$1
PnL
+$0.1
Record
47%
329-371 (700)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.