Games Total: O/U 2.5

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (43%) · Under at 69¢ · $8K held · ends Oct 30

Over32¢Under68¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 43%

Total Value

$7.8K

Combined PnL

$94.09

Smart Money Entry

66.1¢ → 68.5¢

+4% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 69%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over32%

Under69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$6.6K

Total Shares9,873

Combined PnL+$84.4

Over4 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares3,722

Combined PnL+$9.68

Under — 43%Over — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (6 on Under) disagree here.

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x6918EA182D963b1Fb7888860b8a8b8bCfbA5782b-1771878010027	Underavg 66.3¢	$7.2K	$4.9K	+$84.45	57% 1081-806 (1887)
AM am100	Underavg 68¢	$908.55	$901.87	-$6.68	55% 1149-924 (2073)
StudyPrediction	Underavg 63¢	$836.03	$880.2	+$6.64	53% 4542-3955 (8497)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	Overavg 32¢	$571.3	$571.3	-$0	47% 2405-2688 (5093)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 32¢	$400.77	$407.03	+$6.26	58% 40747-29469 (70216)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Overavg 32¢	$160	$162.5	+$2.5	53% 5498-4842 (10340)
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100	Overavg 32¢	$58.85	$59.77	+$0.92	63% 1075-624 (1699)

0x6918EA182D963b1Fb7888860b8a8b8bCfbA5782b-1771878010027

Under

Invested

$7,210

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$84.45

Record

57%

1081-806 (1887)

am100

Under

Invested

$908.55

Value

$901.87

PnL

-$6.68

Record

55%

1149-924 (2073)

StudyPrediction

Under

Invested

$836.03

Value

$880.2

PnL

+$6.64

Record

53%

4542-3955 (8497)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

Over

Invested

$571.3

Value

$571.3

PnL

-$0

Record

47%

2405-2688 (5093)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$400.77

Value

$407.03

PnL

+$6.26

Record

58%

40747-29469 (70216)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Over

Invested

$160

Value

$162.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

53%

5498-4842 (10340)

lonmi2511CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$58.85

Value

$59.77

PnL

+$0.92

Record

63%

1075-624 (1699)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 69%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (6 on Under) disagree here.

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.6%

68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$41.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

141.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.