Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 100¢ · $9K held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 67%
$9.2K
$101.62
90.9¢ → 100¢
+10% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZX zxc368 | Overavg 99.9¢ | $8.5K | $8.5K | +$4.26 | 99% 12685-184 (12869) |
0X 0x14cA946e75D59b8B7EbE21110512f7b885d78F43-1769608890569 | Overavg 40.8¢ | $399.22 | $435.21 | +$35.99 | 46% 893-1064 (1957) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846 | Overavg 30¢ | $110.33 | $163.51 | +$53.18 | 59% 30110-20842 (50952) |
NE newwman<$100 | Overavg 37¢ | $37 | $44.5 | +$7.5 | 53% 886-793 (1679) |
 StudyPredictionCTR<$100 | Underavg 52¢ | $34.42 | $37.43 | +$3.02 | 53% 4546-3963 (8509) |
 bernardi22CTR<$100 | Underavg 60.2¢ | $29.99 | $27.67 | -$2.33 | 56% 1232-955 (2187) |
Invested
$8,520.96
Value
$8.5K
PnL
+$4.26
Record
99%
12685-184 (12869)
Invested
$399.22
Value
$435.21
PnL
+$35.99
Record
46%
893-1064 (1957)
Invested
$110.33
Value
$163.51
PnL
+$53.18
Record
59%
30110-20842 (50952)
Invested
$37
Value
$44.5
PnL
+$7.5
Record
53%
886-793 (1679)
StudyPredictionCTR<$100Invested
$34.42
Value
$37.43
PnL
+$3.02
Record
53%
4546-3963 (8509)
bernardi22CTR<$100Invested
$29.99
Value
$27.67
PnL
-$2.33
Record
56%
1232-955 (2187)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.