LoL: Movistar KOI vs T1 - Game 2 Winner
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold T1 (60%) · T1 at 77¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
T1
5
T1 60%
$3.4K
$39.07
75.5¢ → 76.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralT1 at 77%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on T1. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x6918EA182D963b1Fb7888860b8a8b8bCfbA5782b-1771878010027 | T1avg 75.8¢ | $2.9K | $2.9K | +$27.09 | 57% 1081-806 (1887) |
TA TAIWANNUMBERONE | T1avg 74¢ | $437.71 | $449.54 | +$11.83 | 54% 1174-996 (2170) |
GA GAMBLINGISCANCER69<$100 | T1avg 73¢ | $2.7 | $2.83 | +$0.13 | 67% 29-14 (43) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Movistar KOIavg 23¢ | $2.12 | $2.17 | +$0.05 | 58% 40747-29469 (70216) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Movistar KOIavg 24¢ | $1.2 | $1.17 | -$0.03 | 47% 2038-2342 (4380) |
Invested
$2,878.32
Value
$2.9K
PnL
+$27.09
Record
57%
1081-806 (1887)
Invested
$437.71
Value
$449.54
PnL
+$11.83
Record
54%
1174-996 (2170)
Invested
$2.7
Value
$2.83
PnL
+$0.13
Record
67%
29-14 (43)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$2.12
Value
$2.17
PnL
+$0.05
Record
58%
40747-29469 (70216)
Invested
$1.2
Value
$1.17
PnL
-$0.03
Record
47%
2038-2342 (4380)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.