Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 1?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (83%) · Over at 100¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 83%
$1.9K
-$106.15
62.8¢ → 100¢
+59% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
A8 a8999 | Overavg 53¢ | $800.8 | $846.13 | +$45.33 | 44% 1074-1367 (2441) |
FR frohp5 | Overavg 70¢ | $769.99 | $615.99 | -$154 | 65% 1964-1047 (3011) |
ZX zxc368 | Overavg 99.9¢ | $146.43 | $146.51 | +$0.07 | 99% 12681-184 (12865) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR | Underavg 29.9¢ | $77.06 | $113.52 | +$36.46 | 59% 30106-20832 (50938) |
BE berlinskies | Overavg 70.7¢ | $122.1 | $96.77 | -$25.33 | 58% 5767-4229 (9996) |
 bernardi22<$100 | Overavg 63.3¢ | $75 | $66.32 | -$8.68 | 56% 1232-955 (2187) |
Invested
$800.8
Value
$846.13
PnL
+$45.33
Record
44%
1074-1367 (2441)
Invested
$769.99
Value
$615.99
PnL
-$154
Record
65%
1964-1047 (3011)
Invested
$146.43
Value
$146.51
PnL
+$0.07
Record
99%
12681-184 (12865)
Invested
$77.06
Value
$113.52
PnL
+$36.46
Record
59%
30106-20832 (50938)
Invested
$122.1
Value
$96.77
PnL
-$25.33
Record
58%
5767-4229 (9996)
bernardi22<$100Invested
$75
Value
$66.32
PnL
-$8.68
Record
56%
1232-955 (2187)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.