LoL: Movistar KOI vs T1 - Game 1 Winner
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold T1 (100%) · T1 at 75¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
T1
3
T1 100%
$3.0K
$25.46
74.9¢ → 75.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralT1 at 75%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x6918EA182D963b1Fb7888860b8a8b8bCfbA5782b-1771878010027 | T1avg 75¢ | $2.7K | $2.7K | +$17.98 | 57% 1081-806 (1887) |
GA GAMBLINGISCANCER69 | T1avg 73¢ | $207.1 | $214.2 | +$7.09 | 67% 29-14 (43) |
TA TAIWANNUMBERONE<$100 | T1avg 74¢ | $28.47 | $28.85 | +$0.38 | 54% 1174-996 (2170) |
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.