LoL: Movistar KOI vs T1 (BO3) - Worlds Group Stage
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold T1 (100%) · T1 at 84¢ · $5K held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
T1
3
T1 100%
1 arb excluded
$5.5K
$93.8
83¢ → 84.5¢
+2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralT1 at 84%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SU suleng66 | T1avg 83¢ | $6.0K | $5.1K | +$88.38 | 63% 187-110 (297) |
 Basquetipster | T1avg 83¢ | $300 | $300.11 | +$5.42 | 69% 1651-759 (2410) |
GH ghorrockARB<$100 | T1avg 83¢ | $94.9 | $94.02 | +$0.73 | 57% 12861-9776 (22637) |
| └ T1 leg | T1avg 83¢ | $63.63 | $64.78 | +$1.15 | |
| └ Movistar KOI leg | Movistar KOIavg 15.7¢ | $29.69 | $29.24 | -$0.42 | |
 HRTrading<$100 | T1avg 83¢ | $1.66 | $1.66 | -$0.01 | 54% 2513-2131 (4644) |
Invested
$6,016.33
Value
$5.1K
PnL
+$88.38
Record
63%
187-110 (297)
BasquetipsterInvested
$300
Value
$300.11
PnL
+$5.42
Record
69%
1651-759 (2410)
Invested
$94.9
Value
$94.02
PnL
+$0.73
Record
57%
12861-9776 (22637)
Both legs:
HRTrading<$100Invested
$1.66
Value
$1.66
PnL
-$0.01
Record
54%
2513-2131 (4644)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.