Game Handicap: TSW (-1.5) vs LOS (+1.5)

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold LOS (50%) · LOS at 60¢ · $47K held · ends Oct 27

Team Secret Whales41¢LOS59¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

LOS

Consensus Traders

LOS 50%

Total Value

$47.3K

Combined PnL

$45.86

Smart Money Entry

61.6¢ → 59.5¢

-3% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralLOS at 60%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

LOS

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Team Secret Whales41%

LOS60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

LOS5 traders

Total Value$27.8K

Total Shares46,640

Combined PnL-$980.25

Team Secret Whales5 traders

Total Value$19.6K

Total Shares48,349

Combined PnL+$1.0K

LOS — 50%Team Secret Whales — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on LOS. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Team Secret Whales) and the top 1000 (8 on LOS) disagree here.

whaleLOS 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpLOS 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrLOS 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedTeam Secret Whales 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000LOS 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA TAIWANNUMBERONE	LOSavg 62¢	$21.7K	$20.8K	-$875	54% 1144-973 (2117)
JA jakepaulthegoat2008CTR	Team Secret Whalesavg 38.4¢	$16.7K	$17.6K	+$899.85	49% 7207-7354 (14561)
SB sbimbg	LOSavg 61¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	-$60	68% 2821-1307 (4128)
LO lonmi2511	LOSavg 61¢	$2.4K	$2.3K	-$58.84	64% 991-568 (1559)
forsenxd	LOSavg 59¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$16.09	53% 1013-881 (1894)
0X 0x6918EA182D963b1Fb7888860b8a8b8bCfbA5782b-1771878010027CTR	Team Secret Whalesavg 38¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$78.98	57% 954-717 (1671)
GO GooooooollllllllllCTR	Team Secret Whalesavg 37¢	$1.3K	$531.03	+$45.89	50% 1082-1092 (2174)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	LOSavg 60¢	$300	$297.5	-$2.5	53% 5236-4559 (9795)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Team Secret Whalesavg 40¢	$133.9	$135.57	+$1.67	50% 9389-9311 (18700)
AM am100CTR<$100	Team Secret Whalesavg 41¢	$23.14	$22.86	-$0.28	56% 1049-840 (1889)

TAIWANNUMBERONE

LOS

Invested

$21,699.95

Value

$20.8K

PnL

-$875

Record

54%

1144-973 (2117)

jakepaulthegoat2008CTR

Team Secret Whales

Invested

$16,712.6

Value

$17.6K

PnL

+$899.85

Record

49%

7207-7354 (14561)

sbimbg

LOS

Invested

$2,440

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$60

Record

68%

2821-1307 (4128)

lonmi2511

LOS

Invested

$2,392.69

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$58.84

Record

64%

991-568 (1559)

forsenxd

LOS

Invested

$1,898.53

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$16.09

Record

53%

1013-881 (1894)

0x6918EA182D963b1Fb7888860b8a8b8bCfbA5782b-1771878010027CTR

Team Secret Whales

Invested

$1,200.42

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$78.98

Record

57%

954-717 (1671)

GooooooollllllllllCTR

Team Secret Whales

Invested

$1,311.19

Value

$531.03

PnL

+$45.89

Record

50%

1082-1092 (2174)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

LOS

Invested

$300

Value

$297.5

PnL

-$2.5

Record

53%

5236-4559 (9795)

SnakeBallCTR

Team Secret Whales

Invested

$133.9

Value

$135.57

PnL

+$1.67

Record

50%

9389-9311 (18700)

am100CTR<$100

Team Secret Whales

Invested

$23.14

Value

$22.86

PnL

-$0.28

Record

56%

1049-840 (1889)

Research grade

NeutralLOS at 60%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

LOS

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on LOS. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Team Secret Whales) and the top 1000 (8 on LOS) disagree here.

whaleLOS 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpLOS 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrLOS 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedTeam Secret Whales 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000LOS 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that LOS wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.7%

59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$62.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

162.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.