Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 6 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Games Total: O/U 2.5

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (86%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 1

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 86%

Total Value

$6.9K

Combined PnL

$169.18

Smart Money Entry

57.8¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$5.7K

Total Shares9,716

Combined PnL-$268.59

Over1 trader

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,219

Combined PnL+$437.76

Under — 86%Over — 14%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x6918EA182D963b1Fb7888860b8a8b8bCfbA5782b-1771878010027CTR	Underavg 58¢	$4.2K	$4.3K	+$36.34	57% 1090-812 (1902)
YI yishiwucheng	Overavg 51.5¢	$741.91	$1.2K	+$437.76	51% 1822-1750 (3572)
AM ameisgoat11CTR	Underavg 74.1¢	$1.2K	$671.6	-$566.45	48% 2424-2645 (5069)
LO lonmi2511CTR	Underavg 39¢	$338.13	$654.59	+$316.46	62% 1159-704 (1863)
AM am100CTR	Underavg 59¢	$129.34	$128.24	-$1.1	55% 1159-934 (2093)
0xd3B697c398136430AA46b5C2C62ec4166319Fa47-1770489446062CTR<$100	Underavg 29¢	$40	$37.93	-$2.07	34% 127-245 (372)
GH ghorrockCTR	Underavg 52¢	$121.21	$0.04	-$51.77	57% 13860-10628 (24488)

0x6918EA182D963b1Fb7888860b8a8b8bCfbA5782b-1771878010027CTR

Under

Invested

$4,214.86

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$36.34

Record

57%

1090-812 (1902)

yishiwucheng

Over

Invested

$741.91

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$437.76

Record

51%

1822-1750 (3572)

ameisgoat11CTR

Under

Invested

$1,238.04

Value

$671.6

PnL

-$566.45

Record

48%

2424-2645 (5069)

lonmi2511CTR

Under

Invested

$338.13

Value

$654.59

PnL

+$316.46

Record

62%

1159-704 (1863)

am100CTR

Under

Invested

$129.34

Value

$128.24

PnL

-$1.1

Record

55%

1159-934 (2093)

0xd3B697c398136430AA46b5C2C62ec4166319Fa47-1770489446062CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$40

Value

$37.93

PnL

-$2.07

Record

34%

127-245 (372)

ghorrockCTR

Under

Invested

$121.21

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$51.77

Record

57%

13860-10628 (24488)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.