Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (100%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 2?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 0.1¢ · $974 held · ends Nov 1

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

Total Value

$974.2

Combined PnL

$33.65

Smart Money Entry

50¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 100%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$687.42

Total Shares1,219

Combined PnL+$73.47

Under2 traders

Total Value$286.77

Total Shares652

Combined PnL-$39.82

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x11e5d9276b80c28d2167dB68ae4CfF6d8E09337e-1767473324789CTR	Overavg 49.9¢	$602.84	$676.08	+$73.24	51% 150-146 (296)
CC ccllar	Underavg 50¢	$270.5	$238.04	-$32.46	46% 433-500 (933)
NE newwman<$100	Underavg 50.6¢	$56.09	$48.73	-$7.36	53% 900-802 (1702)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 55¢	$11.11	$11.34	+$0.23	57% 13860-10628 (24488)

0x11e5d9276b80c28d2167dB68ae4CfF6d8E09337e-1767473324789CTR

Over

Invested

$602.84

Value

$676.08

PnL

+$73.24

Record

51%

150-146 (296)

ccllar

Under

Invested

$270.5

Value

$238.04

PnL

-$32.46

Record

46%

433-500 (933)

newwman<$100

Under

Invested

$56.09

Value

$48.73

PnL

-$7.36

Record

53%

900-802 (1702)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$11.11

Value

$11.34

PnL

+$0.23

Record

57%

13860-10628 (24488)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 100%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.