Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs LOS (+1.5)
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold LOS (60%) · LOS at 55¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
LOS
5
LOS 60%
$1.4K
$7.73
54.3¢ → 54.5¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralLOS at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 77%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on LOS. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PI PIPIZIN | LOSavg 54¢ | $599.92 | $599.92 | +$0 | 51% 423-399 (822) |
HU humbleboy | LOSavg 54¢ | $302.82 | $305.62 | +$2.8 | 55% 513-428 (941) |
MR MrConsistency | LOSavg 55¢ | $299.99 | $294.54 | -$2.73 | 40% 567-865 (1432) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR | LYONavg 44¢ | $220 | $230 | +$7.5 | 53% 5631-4970 (10601) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | LYONavg 44.5¢ | $4.45 | $4.6 | +$0.15 | 48% 2389-2622 (5011) |
Invested
$599.92
Value
$599.92
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
423-399 (822)
Invested
$302.82
Value
$305.62
PnL
+$2.8
Record
55%
513-428 (941)
Invested
$299.99
Value
$294.54
PnL
-$2.73
Record
40%
567-865 (1432)
Invested
$220
Value
$230
PnL
+$7.5
Record
53%
5631-4970 (10601)
Invested
$4.45
Value
$4.6
PnL
+$0.15
Record
48%
2389-2622 (5011)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.