Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold LOS, while the market favors LYON (74%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
LoL: LOS vs LYON (BO3) - Worlds Group Stage
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold LOS (50%) · LOS at 27¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
LOS
6
LOS 50%
$2.3K
-$34.28
26.4¢ → 26.5¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidLOS at 27%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors LYON 74%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 87%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on LOS. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZO ZOFGK | LYONavg 74¢ | $740 | $740 | -$0 | 56% 490-384 (874) |
QW QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCFCTR | LOSavg 26.5¢ | $545.34 | $534.77 | -$10.57 | 54% 388-337 (725) |
DA dancingmonkey1CTR | LOSavg 26.4¢ | $502.23 | $476.49 | -$25.74 | 53% 1247-1085 (2332) |
 arjennnnn | LYONavg 74¢ | $221.99 | $221.99 | -$0 | 70% 817-353 (1170) |
MR MrConsistencyCTR | LOSavg 26¢ | $158.11 | $158.11 | +$0 | 40% 567-865 (1432) |
FI five5120 | LYONavg 73¢ | $148.07 | $150.1 | +$2.03 | 71% 341-141 (482) |
Invested
$740
Value
$740
PnL
-$0
Record
56%
490-384 (874)
Invested
$545.34
Value
$534.77
PnL
-$10.57
Record
54%
388-337 (725)
Invested
$502.23
Value
$476.49
PnL
-$25.74
Record
53%
1247-1085 (2332)
arjennnnnInvested
$221.99
Value
$221.99
PnL
-$0
Record
70%
817-353 (1170)
Invested
$158.11
Value
$158.11
PnL
+$0
Record
40%
567-865 (1432)
Invested
$148.07
Value
$150.1
PnL
+$2.03
Record
71%
341-141 (482)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
26.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.