Games Total: O/U 2.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 54¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 60%
$4.1K
$57.63
53.8¢ → 53.5¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 54%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x6918EA182D963b1Fb7888860b8a8b8bCfbA5782b-1771878010027 | Underavg 53.8¢ | $6.8K | $3.7K | +$48.75 | 57% 1090-812 (1902) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR | Overavg 45¢ | $224.99 | $229.99 | +$5 | 53% 5631-4970 (10601) |
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR | Overavg 44¢ | $101.91 | $106.54 | +$4.63 | 47% 2505-2803 (5308) |
AM am100<$100 | Underavg 54¢ | $83.83 | $83.06 | -$0.78 | 55% 1159-934 (2093) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Underavg 51¢ | $2.55 | $2.7 | +$0.03 | 48% 2389-2622 (5011) |
Invested
$6,793
Value
$3.7K
PnL
+$48.75
Record
57%
1090-812 (1902)
Invested
$224.99
Value
$229.99
PnL
+$5
Record
53%
5631-4970 (10601)
Invested
$101.91
Value
$106.54
PnL
+$4.63
Record
47%
2505-2803 (5308)
Invested
$83.83
Value
$83.06
PnL
-$0.78
Record
55%
1159-934 (2093)
Invested
$2.55
Value
$2.7
PnL
+$0.03
Record
48%
2389-2622 (5011)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.