Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs Movistar KOI (+1.5)

5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Movistar KOI (83%) · Movistar KOI at 66¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 31

Karmine Corp35¢Movistar KOI65¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Movistar KOI

Consensus Traders

Movistar KOI 83%

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

$12.86

Smart Money Entry

65¢ → 65.5¢

+1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralMovistar KOI at 66%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Movistar KOI

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Karmine Corp35%

Movistar KOI66%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Movistar KOI5 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares2,435

Combined PnL+$12.86

Karmine Corp1 trader

Total Value$509.98

Total Shares1,500

Combined PnL-$0

Movistar KOI — 83%Karmine Corp — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Movistar KOI. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpMovistar KOI 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrMovistar KOI 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Movistar KOI 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542	Movistar KOIavg 64¢	$615.63	$634.86	+$14.43	47% 2510-2803 (5313)
FR freeman123	Movistar KOIavg 66¢	$607.2	$602.6	-$4.6	82% 544-123 (667)
DA dancingmonkey1CTR	Karmine Corpavg 34¢	$509.98	$509.98	-$0	53% 1248-1086 (2334)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Movistar KOIavg 65¢	$325	$330	+$2.5	53% 5632-4970 (10602)
LZ lzh1<$100	Movistar KOIavg 65¢	$27.94	$28.37	+$0.43	43% 465-620 (1085)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Movistar KOIavg 65¢	$6.5	$6.6	+$0.1	48% 2393-2622 (5015)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542

Movistar KOI

Invested

$615.63

Value

$634.86

PnL

+$14.43

Record

47%

2510-2803 (5313)

freeman123

Movistar KOI

Invested

$607.2

Value

$602.6

PnL

-$4.6

Record

82%

544-123 (667)

dancingmonkey1CTR

Karmine Corp

Invested

$509.98

Value

$509.98

PnL

-$0

Record

53%

1248-1086 (2334)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Movistar KOI

Invested

$325

Value

$330

PnL

+$2.5

Record

53%

5632-4970 (10602)

lzh1<$100

Movistar KOI

Invested

$27.94

Value

$28.37

PnL

+$0.43

Record

43%

465-620 (1085)

ameisgoat11<$100

Movistar KOI

Invested

$6.5

Value

$6.6

PnL

+$0.1

Record

48%

2393-2622 (5015)

Research grade

NeutralMovistar KOI at 66%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Movistar KOI

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Movistar KOI. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpMovistar KOI 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrMovistar KOI 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Movistar KOI 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Movistar KOI wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.6%

65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$47.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

147.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.