LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI (BO3) - Worlds Group Stage

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Karmine Corp (25%) · Karmine Corp at 62¢ · $5K held · ends Oct 31

Karmine Corp62¢Movistar KOI38¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Karmine Corp

Consensus Traders

Karmine Corp 25%

Total Value

$4.5K

Combined PnL

$57.57

Smart Money Entry

58¢ → 61.5¢

+6% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralKarmine Corp at 62%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Karmine Corp

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Karmine Corp62%

Movistar KOI39%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Karmine Corp2 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares4,376

Combined PnL+$99.39

Movistar KOI6 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares4,757

Combined PnL-$41.82

Karmine Corp — 25%Movistar KOI — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Karmine Corp. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleKarmine Corp 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpMovistar KOI 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrMovistar KOI 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Movistar KOI 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA TAIWANNUMBERONE	Karmine Corpavg 58¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$84.39	54% 1228-1034 (2262)
PI PIPIZINCTR	Movistar KOIavg 40.5¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$44.11	51% 423-399 (822)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Karmine Corpavg 58¢	$579.99	$604.99	+$15	53% 5631-4970 (10601)
QW QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCFCTR	Movistar KOIavg 39¢	$355.47	$355.47	+$0	54% 396-342 (738)
VI vibing123CTR	Movistar KOIavg 38¢	$154.29	$158.35	+$4.06	52% 1572-1455 (3027)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Movistar KOIavg 39¢	$134.55	$132.83	-$1.72	50% 33395-32964 (66359)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Movistar KOIavg 39¢	$39	$39	+$0	49% 7958-8291 (16249)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Movistar KOIavg 39.5¢	$3.95	$3.9	-$0.05	48% 2389-2622 (5011)

TAIWANNUMBERONE

Karmine Corp

Invested

$1,957.96

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$84.39

Record

54%

1228-1034 (2262)

PIPIZINCTR

Movistar KOI

Invested

$1,207.89

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$44.11

Record

51%

423-399 (822)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Karmine Corp

Invested

$579.99

Value

$604.99

PnL

+$15

Record

53%

5631-4970 (10601)

QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCFCTR

Movistar KOI

Invested

$355.47

Value

$355.47

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

396-342 (738)

vibing123CTR

Movistar KOI

Invested

$154.29

Value

$158.35

PnL

+$4.06

Record

52%

1572-1455 (3027)

SnakeBallCTR

Movistar KOI

Invested

$134.55

Value

$132.83

PnL

-$1.72

Record

50%

33395-32964 (66359)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Movistar KOI

Invested

$39

Value

$39

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

7958-8291 (16249)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Movistar KOI

Invested

$3.95

Value

$3.9

PnL

-$0.05

Record

48%

2389-2622 (5011)

Research grade

NeutralKarmine Corp at 62%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Karmine Corp

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Karmine Corp. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleKarmine Corp 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpMovistar KOI 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrMovistar KOI 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Movistar KOI 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Karmine Corp wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.7%

61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$57.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

157.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.