Games Total: O/U 2.5

7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 69¢ · $5K held · ends Oct 30

Over32¢Under68¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 100%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.0K

Combined PnL

$59.98

Smart Money Entry

60¢ → 68.5¢

+14% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 69%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 7 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over32%

Under69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$4.4K

Total Shares7,225

Combined PnL+$59.98

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
StudyPrediction	Underavg 59.5¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	+$0.01	53% 4566-3980 (8546)
AM am100	Underavg 60¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$55.37	55% 1150-930 (2080)
YI yishiwuchengARB<$100	Underavg 69.9¢	$650.91	$587.11	-$63.8	51% 1791-1724 (3515)
└ Under leg	Underavg 69.9¢	$355.35	$353.3	-$2.04
└ Over leg	Overavg 38.6¢	$295.56	$233.8	-$61.76
forsenxd	Underavg 61¢	$359.6	$362.55	+$2.95	53% 1054-920 (1974)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Underavg 62¢	$158.18	$156.91	-$1.28	51% 1361-1305 (2666)
VeryLucky888<$100	Underavg 61¢	$56.46	$56.93	+$0.46	58% 41266-29916 (71182)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 67.6¢	$42.79	$45.26	+$2.47	57% 13381-10228 (23609)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Underavg 60.7¢	$6.15	$6.15	+$0	47% 2189-2483 (4672)

StudyPrediction

Under

Invested

$2,380

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$0.01

Record

53%

4566-3980 (8546)

am100

Under

Invested

$1,328.8

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$55.37

Record

55%

1150-930 (2080)

yishiwuchengARB<$100

Under

Invested

$650.91

Value

$587.11

PnL

-$63.8

Record

51%

1791-1724 (3515)

Both legs:

Under$355.3569.9¢-$2.04

Over$295.5638.6¢-$61.76

forsenxd

Under

Invested

$359.6

Value

$362.55

PnL

+$2.95

Record

53%

1054-920 (1974)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Under

Invested

$158.18

Value

$156.91

PnL

-$1.28

Record

51%

1361-1305 (2666)

VeryLucky888<$100

Under

Invested

$56.46

Value

$56.93

PnL

+$0.46

Record

58%

41266-29916 (71182)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$42.79

Value

$45.26

PnL

+$2.47

Record

57%

13381-10228 (23609)

ameisgoat11<$100

Under

Invested

$6.15

Value

$6.15

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

2189-2483 (4672)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 69%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 7 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.6%

68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$41.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

141.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.