Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (71%) · Under at 78¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Under
7
Under 71%
$3.2K
$9.06
57.2¢ → 77.5¢
+36% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 78%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 JustADonk | Underavg 57¢ | $1.6K | $1.5K | -$68.17 | 55% 886-728 (1614) |
GO GooooooollllllllllCTR | Overavg 43¢ | $1.3K | $1.4K | +$74.32 | 50% 1228-1222 (2450) |
 ReformedxCTR | Overavg 44¢ | $186.51 | $192.87 | +$6.36 | 52% 808-756 (1564) |
 iceblue- | Underavg 59¢ | $118 | $109 | -$9 | 43% 805-1070 (1875) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Underavg 57¢ | $17.1 | $16.35 | -$0.75 | 57% 13381-10228 (23609) |
PA pauleta23<$100 | Underavg 64¢ | $10 | $9.92 | -$0.08 | 67% 23216-11620 (34836) |
NE newwman | Underavg 61.3¢ | $563.04 | $5.36 | +$6.39 | 53% 891-798 (1689) |
JustADonkInvested
$1,554.39
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$68.17
Record
55%
886-728 (1614)
Invested
$1,278.23
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$74.32
Record
50%
1228-1222 (2450)
ReformedxCTRInvested
$186.51
Value
$192.87
PnL
+$6.36
Record
52%
808-756 (1564)
iceblue-Invested
$118
Value
$109
PnL
-$9
Record
43%
805-1070 (1875)
Invested
$17.1
Value
$16.35
PnL
-$0.75
Record
57%
13381-10228 (23609)
Invested
$10
Value
$9.92
PnL
-$0.08
Record
67%
23216-11620 (34836)
Invested
$563.04
Value
$5.36
PnL
+$6.39
Record
53%
891-798 (1689)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.