Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs CTBC Flying Oyster (+1.5)

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Karmine Corp (33%) · Karmine Corp at 56¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 30

Karmine Corp56¢CTBC Flying Oyster44¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Karmine Corp

Consensus Traders

Karmine Corp 33%

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

$4.95

Smart Money Entry

54.6¢ → 55.5¢

+2% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralKarmine Corp at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Karmine Corp

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Karmine Corp56%

CTBC Flying Oyster45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Karmine Corp2 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares4,208

Combined PnL-$4.13

CTBC Flying Oyster4 traders

Total Value$340.7

Total Shares746

Combined PnL+$9.08

Karmine Corp — 33%CTBC Flying Oyster — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HU humbleboy	Karmine Corpavg 53.8¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$35.66	54% 503-423 (926)
DA dancingmonkey1	Karmine Corpavg 55.4¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$39.79	54% 1236-1074 (2310)
VeryLucky888CTR	CTBC Flying Oysteravg 44.7¢	$141.98	$147.62	+$5.64	58% 40808-29511 (70319)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	CTBC Flying Oysteravg 44¢	$133.4	$134.92	+$1.52	53% 5507-4852 (10359)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	CTBC Flying Oysteravg 45¢	$54.04	$55.84	+$1.8	49% 18637-19066 (37703)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	CTBC Flying Oysteravg 44¢	$2.2	$2.33	+$0.13	47% 2075-2359 (4434)

humbleboy

Karmine Corp

Invested

$1,115.22

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$35.66

Record

54%

503-423 (926)

dancingmonkey1

Karmine Corp

Invested

$1,181.73

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$39.79

Record

54%

1236-1074 (2310)

VeryLucky888CTR

CTBC Flying Oyster

Invested

$141.98

Value

$147.62

PnL

+$5.64

Record

58%

40808-29511 (70319)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

CTBC Flying Oyster

Invested

$133.4

Value

$134.92

PnL

+$1.52

Record

53%

5507-4852 (10359)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

CTBC Flying Oyster

Invested

$54.04

Value

$55.84

PnL

+$1.8

Record

49%

18637-19066 (37703)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

CTBC Flying Oyster

Invested

$2.2

Value

$2.33

PnL

+$0.13

Record

47%

2075-2359 (4434)

Research grade

NeutralKarmine Corp at 56%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Karmine Corp

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Karmine Corp wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.7%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

173.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.