Games Total: O/U 2.5

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (71%) · Under at 56¢ · $6K held · ends Oct 29

Over44¢Under56¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 71%

Total Value

$6.5K

Combined PnL

$18.1

Smart Money Entry

53¢ → 56.5¢

+7% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over44%

Under56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$4.8K

Total Shares9,124

Combined PnL-$37.55

Over2 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares3,401

Combined PnL+$55.65

Under — 71%Over — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x6918EA182D963b1Fb7888860b8a8b8bCfbA5782b-1771878010027	Underavg 53¢	$3.4K	$3.3K	-$31.63	57% 1081-806 (1887)
YI yishiwuchengCTR	Overavg 46.9¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$53.37	41% 653-926 (1579)
AM am100	Underavg 53¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$9.96	55% 1149-924 (2073)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Underavg 53¢	$380.4	$383.8	+$3.4	51% 1295-1231 (2526)
StudyPredictionCTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$69.9	$72.18	+$2.28	53% 4546-3963 (8509)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 55.3¢	$63.96	$57.02	+$0.86	57% 13182-10034 (23216)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Underavg 60¢	$3.14	$2.9	-$0.24	47% 2075-2359 (4434)

0x6918EA182D963b1Fb7888860b8a8b8bCfbA5782b-1771878010027

Under

Invested

$3,352.25

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$31.63

Record

57%

1081-806 (1887)

yishiwuchengCTR

Over

Invested

$1,522.19

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$53.37

Record

41%

653-926 (1579)

am100

Under

Invested

$1,055.51

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$9.96

Record

55%

1149-924 (2073)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Under

Invested

$380.4

Value

$383.8

PnL

+$3.4

Record

51%

1295-1231 (2526)

StudyPredictionCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$69.9

Value

$72.18

PnL

+$2.28

Record

53%

4546-3963 (8509)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$63.96

Value

$57.02

PnL

+$0.86

Record

57%

13182-10034 (23216)

ameisgoat11<$100

Under

Invested

$3.14

Value

$2.9

PnL

-$0.24

Record

47%

2075-2359 (4434)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 56%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.