Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (17%) · Under at 100¢ · $9K held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 17%
1 arb excluded
$8.8K
$60.49
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZX zxc368 | Underavg 99.9¢ | $5.2K | $5.2K | +$4.19 | 99% 12713-184 (12897) |
NE newwmanARB<$100 | Overavg 57.9¢ | $2.2K | $1.4K | -$310.37 | 53% 886-793 (1679) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 57.9¢ | $1.1K | $881.6 | -$220.69 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 47¢ | $508.14 | $567.61 | -$89.68 | |
 ReformedxCTR | Overavg 52.4¢ | $696.51 | $705.01 | +$8.5 | 52% 796-738 (1534) |
 Up0nlyCTR | Overavg 60.2¢ | $743.68 | $612.15 | -$83.8 | 68% 969-455 (1424) |
A8 a8999CTR | Overavg 48¢ | $363.59 | $401.46 | +$37.87 | 44% 1076-1370 (2446) |
 bernardi22CTR | Overavg 58¢ | $175.76 | $228.57 | +$52.81 | 56% 1238-960 (2198) |
0X 0x14cA946e75D59b8B7EbE21110512f7b885d78F43-1769608890569CTR | Overavg 40.7¢ | $162.58 | $203.49 | +$40.91 | 46% 897-1065 (1962) |
Invested
$5,164.93
Value
$5.2K
PnL
+$4.19
Record
99%
12713-184 (12897)
Invested
$2,208.82
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$310.37
Record
53%
886-793 (1679)
Both legs:
ReformedxCTRInvested
$696.51
Value
$705.01
PnL
+$8.5
Record
52%
796-738 (1534)
Up0nlyCTRInvested
$743.68
Value
$612.15
PnL
-$83.8
Record
68%
969-455 (1424)
Invested
$363.59
Value
$401.46
PnL
+$37.87
Record
44%
1076-1370 (2446)
bernardi22CTRInvested
$175.76
Value
$228.57
PnL
+$52.81
Record
56%
1238-960 (2198)
Invested
$162.58
Value
$203.49
PnL
+$40.91
Record
46%
897-1065 (1962)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.