LoL: Invictus Gaming vs LYON - Game 2 Winner

1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Invictus Gaming (17%) · Invictus Gaming at 62¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 29

Invictus Gaming62¢LYON38¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Invictus Gaming

Consensus Traders

Invictus Gaming 17%

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

-$11.85

Research grade

NeutralInvictus Gaming at 62%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Invictus Gaming

1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Invictus Gaming62%

LYON39%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Invictus Gaming1 trader

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares2,822

Combined PnL-$14.11

LYON5 traders

Total Value$70.96

Total Shares175

Combined PnL+$2.25

Invictus Gaming — 17%LYON — 83%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x6918EA182D963b1Fb7888860b8a8b8bCfbA5782b-1771878010027	Invictus Gamingavg 60¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$14.11	57% 1081-806 (1887)
poshposhCTR<$100	LYONavg 40¢	$31.52	$31.92	+$0.39	60% 9362-6344 (15706)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	LYONavg 38¢	$24.16	$25.75	+$1.59	57% 13139-10016 (23155)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR<$100	LYONavg 38¢	$4.87	$5.19	+$0.32	47% 2405-2688 (5093)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	LYONavg 39.5¢	$3.95	$4.05	+$0.1	47% 2041-2345 (4386)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR<$100	LYONavg 42¢	$4.2	$4.05	-$0.15	53% 5499-4842 (10341)

0x6918EA182D963b1Fb7888860b8a8b8bCfbA5782b-1771878010027

Invictus Gaming

Invested

$1,692.97

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$14.11

Record

57%

1081-806 (1887)

poshposhCTR<$100

LYON

Invested

$31.52

Value

$31.92

PnL

+$0.39

Record

60%

9362-6344 (15706)

ghorrockCTR<$100

LYON

Invested

$24.16

Value

$25.75

PnL

+$1.59

Record

57%

13139-10016 (23155)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR<$100

LYON

Invested

$4.87

Value

$5.19

PnL

+$0.32

Record

47%

2405-2688 (5093)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

LYON

Invested

$3.95

Value

$4.05

PnL

+$0.1

Record

47%

2041-2345 (4386)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR<$100

LYON

Invested

$4.2

Value

$4.05

PnL

-$0.15

Record

53%

5499-4842 (10341)

Research grade

NeutralInvictus Gaming at 62%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Invictus Gaming

1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Invictus Gaming wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.7%

61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$57.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

157.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.