Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 100¢ · $10K held · ends Oct 29

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 67%

Total Value

$10.5K

Combined PnL

$1.3K

Smart Money Entry

58¢ → 100¢

+72% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$8.5K

Total Shares12,297

Combined PnL+$1.2K

Over3 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares4,229

Combined PnL+$31.81

Under — 67%Over — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NE newwman	Underavg 52.8¢	$2.4K	$2.9K	+$1.2K	53% 886-793 (1679)
Reformedx	Underavg 50.5¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$0.45	52% 794-736 (1530)
ZX zxc368	Underavg 99.9¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$0.72	99% 12685-184 (12869)
iceblue-	Underavg 57.2¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$27.79	43% 799-1064 (1863)
StudyPredictionCTR	Overavg 45.9¢	$1.0K	$993.14	-$9.09	53% 4546-3963 (8509)
0X 0x5E5175106a7Dbbd92B10f1b56458Fc8c1Bdd42ce-1730865746538CTR	Overavg 49¢	$781.79	$821.36	+$39.57	68% 1439-687 (2126)
CC ccllar	Underavg 46¢	$601.47	$714.83	+$63.35	46% 399-472 (871)
A8 a8999CTR	Overavg 44.3¢	$223.4	$224.73	+$1.32	44% 1074-1370 (2444)
bernardi22	Underavg 62.8¢	$107.44	$102.66	-$4.78	56% 1232-955 (2187)

newwman

Under

Invested

$2,415.6

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

53%

886-793 (1679)

Reformedx

Under

Invested

$2,064.73

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$0.45

Record

52%

794-736 (1530)

zxc368

Under

Invested

$1,444.55

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$0.72

Record

99%

12685-184 (12869)

iceblue-

Under

Invested

$1,299.95

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$27.79

Record

43%

799-1064 (1863)

StudyPredictionCTR

Over

Invested

$1,002.22

Value

$993.14

PnL

-$9.09

Record

53%

4546-3963 (8509)

0x5E5175106a7Dbbd92B10f1b56458Fc8c1Bdd42ce-1730865746538CTR

Over

Invested

$781.79

Value

$821.36

PnL

+$39.57

Record

68%

1439-687 (2126)

ccllar

Under

Invested

$601.47

Value

$714.83

PnL

+$63.35

Record

46%

399-472 (871)

a8999CTR

Over

Invested

$223.4

Value

$224.73

PnL

+$1.32

Record

44%

1074-1370 (2444)

bernardi22

Under

Invested

$107.44

Value

$102.66

PnL

-$4.78

Record

56%

1232-955 (2187)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.